Continuation....


Q1 2012: Tensions escalate to alarming levels

The Department of Foreign Affairs, headed by Sec. del Rosario, clearly had – and still has – an uncompromising stance. To make matters worse, subsequent events show that prodding from the United States only served to embolden the Aquino administration.

In November 2011, US President Barack Obama told Asia that US was 'here to stay' as a Pacific power [Guardian]. Shortly thereafter, China warned "external forces" not to get involved in its maritime disputes with neighboring countries over the South China Sea [BBC].

Obama ignored China’s warning.

A month later, through his ten-day Asian tour, Obama reportedly managed to convey successfully his administration’s determination to “rebalance” American attention, influence, and investment toward Asia, and away from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Douglas Paal of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace writes, “If you were viewing all this activity purely through the filter of the media, however, you might also conclude that Obama had successfully tightened the noose of containment around China [Carnegie].”

Itong si Obama, di naman tutulong sa laban, nanggagatong pa. SARAP KUTUSAN.

A few days after Obama’s Asian tour, Chinese President Hu Jintao told Chinese military personnel they should "make extended preparations for warfare" [BBC].

Days later, a Chinese naval vessel was seen near the Sabina shoal on 11 and 12 December, according to del Rosario. The vessel, however, "did not drop anchor or unload construction materials and appeared to be just passing through [BBC]."


Just when we thought del Rosario can’t get any more hardline, he announced in January 2012 that the Philippines is prepared to validate its claim under the UNCLOS. He even taunted China by inviting it to do the same with its own claims [Inq].

Yes, things are escalating very, very quickly, and it reached almost reached breaking point in April 2012.


Q2 2012: The Scarborough Standoff

In April 2012, a Philippine naval ship, two Chinese vessels and at least eight fishing boats got into a standoff in Scarborough Shoal [VoA]. China gradually increased in naval presence in the area in response. By late May 2012, ninety-two (92) Chinese ships have already occupied Panatag Shoal [Inq].

I guess we would have wanted to increase our naval presence too, pero BRP Gregorio del Pilar lang ang meron tayo e.

In short, both Chinese and Philippine Navies were continuously occupying the area and were within shooting distance of each other.

If one side shoots the other – even accidentally – it will mean war.

Yes. War. Bloody, f*cking war.

We had to de-escalate as soon as possible, and de-escalation is what the Aquino administration tried to do. Note, however, that the operative word here is “tried”, because “try” and “accomplish” are two very different words.

Both navies agreed on a troop pullout at around 15 June 2012. The problem, however, is that China didn’t pull out its vessels at the same time the Philippines did [Inq].

That is, the Chinese navy appeared to have stayed in the area even after Philippine troops have gone home. Because of this, the Philippines considered sending troops back [Inq].

In an official statement, the DFA accused China of duplicity and intimidation [GMA].

“It appears that there is an element that is lacking in our negotiations. I seek a deeper element of trust from our Chinese friends,” Del Rosario said [Inq].

China claimed miscommunication. The Philippines understood the agreement as a simultaneous pullout but China said it thought she made it clear that while the Philippines will immediately pull out, the Chinese navy will “pull out gradually” to avoid public anger and disappointment in the Chinese Mainland [Rap].

This kind of compromise is not new.

The US requested the same thing from the Soviet Union during the Cuban Missile Crisis of the 1960s.

The US and USSR agreed that the Soviets will immediately pull out their missiles and warships near the Cuban coast. Meanwhile, the US agreed to dismantle her Jupiter missiles in Turkey, but only after several months. US requested this because she doesn’t want to appear weak in the eyes of the public [Bernstein 1980].

The problem however, is that the DFA issued press releases even before it asked China why. In short, DFA and del Rosario failed.

Wala tayong binatbat kung gyera pag-uusapan, pero bakit mas matapang pa tayo sa China? Tanginathis.

The Aquino administration said it wants to try to engage in peaceful and fruitful negotiations with China, but it continues to provoke the Chinese government by sending conflicting messages.

The failure of PH-China diplomacy in mid-2012 can be attributed to Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario’s preference for an uncompromising stance over the issue, along with the fact that he talks too much. Del Rosario loved issuing press releases about everything that happens in the South China Sea, further antagonizing the Chinese. According to former Ambassador Sonia Brady’s notes as relayed by Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile “US has already let (del Rosario) go, binitawan na siya.” [ABS]

But can things get shittier than this? Yes.

Del Rosario’s formal diplomatic channel (front door) failed, so the Aquino administration had to rely on informal (backdoor) channels.

And that's where it got messier.