Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

[Hanren]

good thing we have these alternate weather forecasting sources other than PAGASA. most probably sa above sources din nakuha ng PAGASA yung dalawang possible weather disturbances this week. Less than 24 hours lang ang PAGASA warning of the storm 'Ondoy' to hit Central Luzon and there was no wide area flooding forecast for greater Metro Manila. Please note the weather news last Sept. 25, Friday from GMA 7 (HISTORICAL CHRONOLOGY):

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/173115/o...northern-luzon



http://www.gmanews.tv/story/173177/o...under-signal-2



http://www.gmanews.tv/story/173211/f...ights-canceled

PAGASA cannot be considered as weather 'forecaster' or even weather 'newscaster'. better kung weather 'history-caster'

I don't know if this is the proper thread to express disappointment with PAGASA.

PAGASA cannot really make accurate rain forecasts because they lack equipment (doppler radar, etc). Kung sana inuna yung funding para sa mga equipment at personnel, eh sana maaasahan talaga sila.

I often don't really on forecasts made by PAGASA everytime I have major travel plans during this storm season. But there were times that other International weather forecasting bureaus (such as CNN, JTWC, and UK Met) have also made typhoon track errors pero tumugma naman yung sa PAGASA. In short, since hindi naman talaga exact science and weather forecasting, mas kailangan pa talaga ng matinding support in terms of funding ang agency.

And PAGASA tend to issue very general and ambigious statements such as:

"..the storm will induce the southwest monsoon and bring rains over the western part of Luzon and Visayas"



Such statements have become all too familiar that people who come across it everyday tend to ignore it already. Palagi na lang natin naririnig yan at parang walang nagbago.

But when I came across the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Prognosis, the forecast team wrote that the "..deepest convections (or rain clouds) are confined and concentrated to the West/Southwest because the eastern portion of the storm is being sheared or being blown away". Kaya kahit medyo tama yung forecast track ng PAGASA, hindi naman nila sinabi na ang volume ng ulan eh sa bandang Metro Manila. The winds did not do a lot of damage. It was the rains that did it.

They can always blame climate change but PAGASA should adapt to these times. Yung information dissemination nila still needs improvement. Sa amin dito sa Baguio signal number two pero ilang beses sumikat ang araw. Ask the man on the street and he or she will tell you "ganito ba ang signal number 2?"

In short,it still boils down to funding and support. Years ago, there were proposals already to increase the capability of PAGASA but I don't know what happened to those proposals.

I know it's not time to pass the blame on agencies or people but we should have learned our lessons years ago.

[redgreen]

you are so right
squaters shouldn't thrive to places they shouldn't be.

[renzo_d10]

Typhoon Peping just entered philippines.

[Lucius]

Asa pa kayo sa PAGASA eh mga random nerds lang yan an pinagsamasama for sure Google Earth/Maps pinagkakaabalahan ng mga un sa office

San mo nakuha yang news renzo? Galing ba PAGASA yan? If it is, baka hindi accurate yan

[renzo_d10]

^^ It's from TV Patrol World ( or was it in News Patrol? ) Anyways, yeah it's from PAG-ASA.

[mazzipino]

I've always wondered about PAGASA myself. Few times this year, it has been raining hard where I live and when I check the PAGASA website satellite, the rain is far away.

[chua_riwap]

As per PAG-ASA, Pepeng might morph into a "Super Typhoon". It's now packing winds of 120 kph, and may pass N.Luzon.....

[renzo_d10]

^^ What now? It's stronger than Ondoy? :parning:

I`ve remembered that PAGASA also announced before that Ondoy will hit N. Luzon, but it eventually hit MM. So does that mean that there's also a possibility that Peping will hit MM? :blue:

Oh BTW, does anyone know when typhoon peping hit N. Luzon? Any estimate dates ? I`ve got my batteries ready already.

[Jun aka Pekto]

If that typhoon does pass over Northern Luzon versus stopping off the East Luzon coast then veering north (based on the forecast track a few days ago), guess where the potential for enhanced southwest monsoon flow will be? Deja vu?

[chua_riwap]

Here it is, about Pepeng.........



http://www.gmanews.tv/story/173480/p...-super-typhoon

'Pepeng' enters RP, threatens to become super typhoon


Less than a week after tropical storm "Ondoy" (Ketsana) devastated Metro Manila and some provinces in the Central Luzon and Calabarzon regions and leaving over 200 people dead and thousands more homeless , a powerful new cyclone entered Philippine territory Wednesday afternoon.

Nathaniel Cruz, weather bureau chief of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said typhoon Pepeng (international name: Parma) may even intensify into a super typhoon.

"Pumasok na sa area of responsibility (ang) bagyong papangalanan nating 'Pepeng.' Pumasok siya mga 2 p.m. (The cyclone named Pepeng entered our area of responsibility at 2 p.m.)," Cruz said in an interview on dzRH radio.

Cruz said Pepeng is packing maximum winds of 120 kph and may pass Northern Luzon on its way to Taiwan. "Kung tuloy tuloy at di magbabago ang direction tatama sa dulo ng Northern Luzon hanggang Taiwan (If it does not change direction it is likely to hit the Northern Luzon-Taiwan area)," he said.

In its 5 p.m. advisory, Pagasa said that as of 4 p.m., Pepeng was 940 kms east of Surigao City. It is moving west-northwest at 22 kph and is expected to be 630 kms east-northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar by Thursday afternoon.

He said that even if Pepeng would not make landfall, it would enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains to parts of the country either on Friday or Saturday.

"By Friday afternoon it is expected to be 430 kms northeast of Borongan, Samar. By Saturday afternoon it is expected to be 290 kms north-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 330 kms east of Casiguran, Aurora, the advisory said.

"This disturbance is still too far to affect any part of the country within the next 24-36 hours," it added.

Cruz said Pepeng may still intensify into a super typhoon, as it is expected to remain at sea for the next two to three days. "Puwede po, babantayan natin yan (It can intensify into a super typhoon. We are monitoring it)," he said.

He urged the public to be ready for the typhoon. "Maging handa na tayo kahit wala diyan (We must be ready for it even if it has not made landfall)," he said.

Pepeng entered Philippine territory less than a week after Ondoy left at least 246 people dead. The government had said it is ready for Pepeng and has readied plans for forced evacuation of people living near areas at risk. - GMANews.TV

[mazzipino]

PAGASA:

[goldencoil]

Ang nakakatakot pa sa ganito, it may not need a super typhoon para bumaha kaagad sa Manila kasi yung current situation ay hindi pa nareremedyuhan. Haay. Sana naman wag nang mangyari to....

[redorange]

There are four possible forecast for Parma(Pepeng) two showing it going into the Philippines and two showing it moving north to Japan and Korea. The ones who issued the forecast going to Luzon is Korea and Japan. Pagasa and JTWC issued the ones going towards Korea and Japan. I hope they all compromise and just make it go towards Taiwan. Normally the storms coming from this area track toward Batanes and brings some rain to Manila but with the flooding right now, Manila doesn't really need that rain. There is another one coming that is still being tracked and that is Melor which they expect to be here by weekend and probably another 3-4 days before Philippine Area of Responsibilty.

[Hanren]

Latest updates:

From JTWC: [URL: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp1909.gif]




This is the prognostic reasoning (for meteorologists or PAGASA )

WDPN33 PGTW 301500MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W WARNING NR 12// RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CON-VECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL. A 300848Z SSMISPASS SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE RING IS LOCATED AROUND A SMALL EYE, WITHADDITIONAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN POR-TION OF TY 19W FROM THE WEST.

PARMA (PEPING) IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERNQUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLEDIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO AMPLIFY THE CURRENT INTENSITY INCREASES SEEN OVERTHE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEER ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.

TRACK SPEED HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENTOVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF TD 18W CONTINUE TO TRACKTOWARDS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF PARMA AND IS CLOSING THE DISTANCEBETWEEN THE TWO.3. FORECAST REASONING A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURSWITH A SINGLE TRACK SOLUTION THROUGH TAU 72.

TY 19W (PARMA) WILL TRACK NORTH-WESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND CONTINUE TOINTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES AS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHAPPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE REMNANTS OF TD 18W WILL CONTINUE TOTRACK TOWARDS TY 19W AND BE ABSORBED BY TAU 48, BUT WILL NOT HAVE ASIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE INTENSITY OR TRACK FOR TY 19W. FAVORABLEUPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WILL ALLOW FOR TY 19WTO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72.

C. MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, WITH AVNIAND GFNI SHOWING A TRACK AGROSS NORTHERN LUZON. NGPI AND EGR2 SHOW AMORE NORTHWARD TRACK. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS ECMWF SHOWS TY 19WTRACKING TOWARDS TAIWAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A CLOSERAPPROACH TO LUZON WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LUZONSTRAIT AND STARTS TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. THE MID-LATITUDE FLOWIS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AFTER TAU 72, AND THE STR I***PECTED TO BUILD A WESTWARD EXTENSION OVER EASTERN CHINA AND TAIWAN.TY 19W WILL SLOW AROUND TAU 72 AS IT DRIVES INTO THE EXTENSION OF THERIDGE.//NNNN

From Japan Met Agency [URL:http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0917.html]

[CVT]

If that typhoon does pass over Northern Luzon versus stopping off the East Luzon coast then veering north (based on the forecast track a few days ago), guess where the potential for enhanced southwest monsoon flow will be? Deja vu?

I get your drift, bro.

Scary for us.....

8701:soccer:

[renzo_d10]

Pumapatak nanaman ang ulan sa bubong ng bahay.....:rained_down:

[ssaloon]

Lakas na ng ulan dito sa amin, coupled with strong wind too (QC area)

[renzo_d10]

News Patrol 12nn : Rain + Strong Wind

Paktay, mga billboard at poste naman ang target nitong si pepeng.

[oliver1013]

Umuulan nanaman.....

[Zeus]

Kanina narinig ko sa news, umaabot 150 km/h na yung hangin ni Pepeng a...